Too Big to Fail (Again)

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the bank bailouts did not save the economy as their architects advertised. Rather, they bolstered the biggest U.S. banks from an insolvency crisis of their own creation. Those banks were, and remain, too big to fail. Their CEOs are too connected to jail.

The leaders of the major banks oversaw multi-trillion dollar enterprises that committed fraud, lost other people’s money, harassed public service members, and fired thousands of low-level employees. Worst of all, they have put the entire financial system and markets at the edge of ruin again.

Big banks know they have political and Federal Reserve support. Low or negative rates provide banks access to cheap capital if they need it, which encourages greater recklessness than if they had to “pay” more for it. They have taken this as a license to gamble large. By rescuing and supporting the big banks’ dangerous behavior, such recklessness has been not only condoned but encouraged.

The argument big banks make about their mega derivatives positions is that they are “hedged.” In other words, though the total (or “notional”) figure is large, most of the long and short positions net out against each other. The problem with that assessment is that the big banks take long and short positions against each other. They have set themselves up again in domino fashion.

We are heading for another financial crisis at some point. No one can say when for certain, but probably sooner than later. There’s a lot more money supporting the system artificially that the central banks have conjured than we had going into the last crisis. If that subsidy was to go away or be reduced, the money would come draining out of the same financial system that it’s been inflating.

-- Nomi Prins (Daily Reckoning) May 23, 2019 (edited)